Aon's 2013 Terrorism and Political Violence Map points to a continued threat of a terrorist attack or political violence as 44 percent of countries measured have an identifiable risk of terrorist attacks. This trend is especially prevalent in African and the Northern African countries. Despite 19 countries showing improved terrorism and political violence ratings, including the U.K. and Germany, data and analysis reflected by the map suggest continued and growing awareness is needed for businesses looking to expand.
The three perils measured indicate the different forms of political violence most likely to be encountered by businesses:
Terrorism and sabotage
Strikes, riots, civil commotion and malicious damage to property Insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d'etat, war and civil war. Color-coded ratings of the 200 countries and territories measured act as a gauge for the overall intensity of the risk of terrorism and political violence to business in each country.
Neil Henderson, head of Aon Risk Solutions' Crisis Management Terrorism team, said, "Terrorism is having an increasing impact on today's global organizations and terrorist attacks are now regarded as a foreseeable risk. An attack not only on, but near an organisation's premises can result in human casualties, property damage, business interruption, legal liability issues and long term damage to brand and reputation. The Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map is one of a range of Aon tools that allow data and fact-based insight to support and advise companies in their efforts to be increasingly resilient in today's quickly evolving and volatile environment. This insight allows our clients to plan overseas expansion or international growth."
Henry Wilkinson, head of the Intelligence and Analysis practice at Risk Advisory, added, "The global economic crisis, shifting geopolitical balances and two years of unusually high levels of civil upheaval present challenges and opportunities for businesses looking to expand. North and West Africa and the Middle East stand out as regions of increasing risk. Civil wars in Libya and Syria in particular have contributed to violent risks in nearby countries. Egypt returns to the highest risk rating this year due to persistent civil tumult, political instability and terrorism. While Northern Europe has seen some improvements, evident in the U.K.'s improved rating, fiscal and economic pressures mean businesses in Southern European countries still face a higher level of risk associated with civil disruption."
The data shows:
11 upgrades (increased risk ratings), including Argentina, Egypt and Jordan.
19 downgrades (decreased risk ratings), including Germany, Italy and the U.K..
44 percent of countries measured have an identifiable threat of terrorism, with the worst affected being Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Somalia, Syria, Thailand and the Yemen.
Europe has the most positive regional outlook, with 47 percent of the countries with lowered risk ratings this year. This reflects receding civil unrest associated with the financial and economic crises. Limited incidents of terrorism outside of Greece and Northern Ireland also accounted for lowered risk scores.
Lingering after-effects of the Arab Spring on regional security and stability remain evident. The Middle East is the most unstable region, with 64 percent of its countries attaining high or severe risk ratings, reflecting terrorism, unrest and conflict risks.
The Middle East and North Africa region witnessed the highest proportion of countries with a terrorism and sabotage peril, at 85 percent.
Methodology and resources
The map measures political violence and terrorism in 200 countries and territories to help companies assess the risk levels of exchange transfer, political violence and terrorism.
Produced by Aon in collaboration with global risk management consultancy The Risk Advisory Group plc, the Aon Terrorism and Political Violence Map reflects data recorded by Terrorism Tracker*, Aon WorldAware* and an expert assessment of the security situation. Each country is assigned a threat level, starting at negligible, and rising through low, medium, high and severe.
Terrorism threat is defined as an assessment of the intent and capability for terrorist groups to stage attacks and the likelihood they will succeed. Aon and The Risk Advisory Group plc Aon has partnered with Risk Advisory, a leading independent global risk management consultancy, for three years. Risk Advisory helps clients navigate increasingly complex regulatory, compliance and security environments in some of the most challenging jurisdictions by providing intelligence, investigation and security services. Clients include many of the world's leading corporate entities, financial institutions and law firms.